The Cheney Length

Some time ago on another blog (before I went "underground" on this one), I composed a post concerning Dick Cheney's "last throes" remark. In trying to assay the length of a "throe," I pointed out the following:

1. Dick Cheney also stated (last October [i.e., of 2004]) that "once those [Iraqi] elections are held, they're [i.e., the insurgents are] out of business."
2. The Iraqi elections were held January 30 [of 2005].
3. It's now June [of 2005]--four-plus months later. So while the insurgency has by official decree "gone out of business," it is nonetheless still at a stage of existence in which it is engaged in widespread killing. I'll call this stage "winding up."
4. It seems reasonable to assume that a "winding up" is either longer or shorter than a "last throe." (The only other possibility, of course, is that the two are precisely equivalent. This seems unlikely.)
5. It also seems reasonable to assume that the "last throes" are distinct from, but ensue somewhere toward the end of, the "winding up." (You don't "wind up" until you're "out of business." That's just the way these things work.)
6. We can therefore conclude (tentatively, of course) that the insurgency will come to the end of its last throes some time between now and when the sun goes nova.

Just thought that might of some contemporary interest.